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Analyst Views Novo Nordisk's Upcoming Obesity Drug Data To Lay Grounds For Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide

  • Cantor Fitzgerald published around 40-page deep dive ahead of Novo Nordisk A/S’s NVO SELECT CV outcomes study, which is guided to complete in ~mid-2023. 
  • In large-cap land, there two two obesity leaders — Eli Lilly And Co LLY and Novo Nordisk. Other players include Amgen Inc AMGN, Pfizer Inc PFE, and possibly Novartis AG NVS.
  • Based on diligence, there is a strong likelihood that SELECT will read out positively on its primary composite endpoint (HR of at least ~17%) that could be a key trigger point in unlocking what could amount to a ~$50-55 billion market in 2030E for obesity drugs.
  • Among other factors, this assumes that GLP-1-based therapies in obesity can achieve ~50% reimbursement overall (~80% commercial), which is above the ~30% coverage Novo is currently at with Wegovy. 
  • According to EvaluatePharma, 2028E sales for the total obesity market are currently forecasted at ~$14.9 billion, dominated in the near to medium term by NVO’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, which could be approved as early as late 2023. 
  • The analyst writes that details from the SELECT data could also provide helpful read-throughs to tirzepatide’s ongoing trials. Therefore, it reiterates Eli Lilly stock’s Overweight rating and $432 price target.
  • Price Action: LLY shares are down 0.14% at $351.53, and NVO shares are up 0.04% at $139.82 on the last check Thursday.
  • Photo Via Company

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