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Gridlock: Republicans Fall Short Of Big Gains Anticipated

Good Morning Everyone!

Turns out free money is very expensive. 

  • FTX/Alemeda collapse will cost US$7-12B – FTX worth almost NOTHING

  • Meta – lost US$730 billion in 12 months – soon be worth NOTHING?

  • Tiger Global – hedge fund losing US$40MM a day

The system needs a reset.

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 11/8/22; % YTD


Markets move to Thursday’s CPI number after Midterm results trickle in

  • Midterms did not move the markets

  • CPI likely will (Thursday)

  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast:

Crude 88 -1%       


Meta META +5%

  • Letting go of around 11,000 employees and extending a hiring freeze through Q1

  • 13% of its staff

  • First ever broad restructuring at Facebook/Meta

  • 2023 operating budget $97 billion at mid-point vs. prior $98.5 billion

  • 2023 capital expenditures $35.5 billion at mid-point vs. prior $36.5 billion

Disney DIS -8%

  • Revenue miss = 5%

  • EBIT operating miss = 23%, largely due to Parks

  • Parks margins missed

  • Bigger losses at direct-to-consumer streaming and linear

  • Disney+ sub adds beat 12.1 million but average revenue per user declined 5% y/y


Tesla TSLA

Taiwan Semiconductor

  • Plans to build another chip making plant in Arizona

  • Already announced a $12 billion complex

  • The two plants will be north of Phoenix


  • Affirm AFRM -16%, lowered 2023 guide

  • Occidental Petro OXY -1%, cash Flow, FCF and production beat, EPS slight miss

  • Lucid LCID

  • D.R. Horton DHI -2%, Revenue $9.87B vs. guide $10-10.8B, EPS $4.67 vs. $5.07

  • Roblox RBLX -15%, revenue miss, less gaming

  • AMC AMC -1%


FTX FTT/USD update: things very much not “fine”

  • FTX facing serious liquidity crunch

  • Binance signs non-binding LOI to acquire FTX

  • Just months ago FTX was doing the bailouts

  • Who is left to bailout Binance if it fails?

  • Is FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried the next Warren Buffett: A Hard NO

  • FTT (FTX token) crashed…down >80%

  • Surge in withdrawals out of Jump Trading, Alameda Research (both owned by FTX):

Ripple effects felt throughout crypto



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