As the 2024 elections approach, Wall Street traders are showing a surge of unease, as demonstrated by the Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge,” which reveals an alarmingly high level of anxiety among traders.
What Happened: The Cboe Volatility Index, has seen an unusual increase in trading of October futures this week. This indicates that traders are exhibiting significant apprehension, reported Business Insider.
The October futures which began trading earlier this week include the Nov. 5 election date. The futures are trading at a substantial gap compared to September futures, a trend not observed in previous election cycles, the report noted citing Bloomberg data.
The difference in pricing between October and September futures surpasses that of the same period during the 2016 and 2020 election cycles, with October futures trading 3.3 points higher than September contracts.
Newton highlighted that the months from March to August and November to year-end have historically been the best performing months in election years. Suttmeier expects August to be the strongest month following a relatively slow January to May.
Why It Matters: The election, possibly a Trump-Biden rematch following the former President’s victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, is less than 10 months away. The fluctuating stock market patterns during election years as noted by analysts such as Mark Newton from Fundstrat and Stephen Suttmeier from Bank of America, add to the market’s unease.
Previously, it was reported that Trump-related stocks have experienced substantial rallies following his victory in the Iowa primaries. Companies like Digital World Acquisition Corp. DWAC and Phunware Inc. PHUN have seen their stocks soar by over 180% and 400%, respectively.
As the GOP nomination race narrowed down to Trump and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump’s victories in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary have given him a significant lead. According to Real Clear Politics, at the national level, Trump held 70.3% support among GOP voters, While Haley trailed with 12% support. Among Democrats, Joe Biden is leading with 69.75% support.
This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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